Danger and opportunities in post Meles Ethiopia

 

Ethiopia is facing political and economic uncertainties as well as opportunities in the wake of Prime Minister Meles’s death, according to Time. Meles had dropped out of medical school to fight in the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), part of the alliance that in 1991 overthrew the communist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam. Since then, Meles has been praised for his vision of an ‘Ethiopian Renaissance’ and for policies that helped alleviates a great deal of Ethiopia’s poverty. Many fear that progress and stability won’t be sustained without his leadership.

Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that the appointment of a successor to Meles at the head of the rulingparty was recently delayed. Deputy Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn had been appointed acting leader on August 21, but leaders in the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) asked for more time to mourn before confirming the succession.

However, EPRDF dismissed fears of a power vacuum, and claimed to simply be following the party’s rules for choosing a new leader. Some political analyst also agree with EPRDF’s handling of post-Meles Ethiopia: Dr. Solomon Dersso of Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa says that “This is completely overlooking the strength of the EPRDF institutions, which are stronger than most are willing to admit. While there could be divisions and tensions, normal in such an organization, I think the point has been exaggerated a great deal. From talking with close observers in the party paradigm, it doesn’t seem like there is any contestation of who will be the leader.”

But for opposition parties, human rights groups and democracy activists, continuity of the status quo will be a disappointment. “It is a difficult time for the EPRDF but it is sure that Hailemariam will be elected as the prime minister,” says Dr Negaso Gidada Solon, leader of opposition party the Unity for Democracy and Justice Party(UJD) adding that he believes deputy foreign minister and former TPLF fighter Berhane Gebrekristos will assert a great deal of power behind the scenes. They have been swearing to continue to the policies of Meles, as a result economic, social and political problems will get worse unless EPRDF comes to its senses and creates a democratic political opening.”

Despite the fear on the streets of what the future holds after the passing of the only leader many Ethiopians have known, Meles’ death could bring into being a more pluralistic EPRDF, requiring the next leader to work harder to appease the nation than Meles ever needed to. “Meles’ shoes are just too big to fill.”


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